Here are brief explanations of each Junk Stat used on this site. For more detailed analysis of a stat, click on the appropriate category in the right-hand column.

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• Dumb Luck Wins
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• Tough Luck Losses
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• Out Prevention Percentage
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• Infield Outs Prevented
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• Pitcher Fatigue Factor
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umb Luck Wins (DLWs; alternately, DerekLoweWins)

The Dumb Luck Win (first defined here

as the “DerekLoweWin”) measures a pitcher’s “ability” to win despite himself. A DLW occurs when a starting pitcher

1. Gets a Win
2. Gives up at least 4 earned runs
3. Has a WPA for the game of -0.05 or worse (in other words, hurts his team’s chances of winning by at least 5%)

Basically, these are games in which the pitcher got a Win despite really not deserving it. Innings-eaters (good and bad) and pitchers on good offensive teams tend to rack up the DLWs. There were 75 DLWs in baseball in 2010, the lowest figure in quite some time.

The rate version of this stat is DLW%, which is simply defined as follows:

DLW% = DLW / Starter Wins

In other words, DLW% is the percentage of all wins (as a starting pitcher) that end up in DLWs. Anything above 8% or so is high.

See also the Tough Luck Loss (TLL) below.

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ough Luck Losses (TLLs)

The counterpart to the Dumb Luck Win, the TLL measures a pitcher’s “ability” to lose games despite pitching well. A TLL occurs when a starting pitcher:

1. Gets a Loss
2. Gives up no more than 2 earned runs
3. Pitches at least 7 innings
4. Accrues a WPA for the game of at least 0.10 (i.e., boosts his team’s chances of winning by at least 10%)

In these games, the pitcher deserved a Win but instead got a Loss, thanks largely to poor run support. In 2010, a bit less than 5% of starting pitcher losses were of the Tough Luck variety.

The rate version of this stat is TLL%, which is simply defined as follows:

TLL% = TLL / Starter Losses

In other words, TLL% is the percentage of all losses (as a starting pitcher) that end up in TLLs. Anything above 8% or so is high.

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ut Prevention Percentage (OPP)

OPP is meant as a kind of alternative to on-base percentage (OBP). Instead of measuring the rate at which a player gets on base, it measures the rate at which he prevents outs. This may seem a pointless distinction, but for some players, it can make a big difference. OPP is only concerned with whether a player made an out in an at-bat (and how many outs he made). All single outs are counted the same (including sacrifices), and all non-outs are counted the same (including errors). Double-plays are counted as two outs. Here’s how to calculate OPP:

OPP = (H + BB + HBP + ROE + XI – GDP) / PA

H = hits
BB = walks
HBP = times hit by pitch
ROE = times reached on error
XI = catcher’s interference (for most players, this will be 0)
GDP = times grounded into double plays
PA = plate appearances

The resulting figure will look somewhat like on-base percentage, though for most players, their OPP will be a bit lower than their OBP. A .400 OPP is elite, .350 is good, and .310 is about average.

A player makes, on average, (1 – OPP) outs per plate appearance. You could call this “Out Percentage.”

A related stat is OPP+, or adjusted OPP. OPP+ is simply OPP adjusted to the league average. It does not account for ballpark effects. It can be calculated very simply:

OPP+ = (OPP / League OPP) * 100

A 100 OPP+ is average. The amount above or below 100 is equal to the percentage above or below the league average, so a 108 OPP+ is equal to an OPP 8% above league average, while an OPP+ of 87 is equal to 13% below league average.

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nfield Outs Prevented (IFOP)

IFOP is a tally of the number of infield outs a hitter “prevents” (or fails to prevent), assuming that each ball hit on the infield is normally good for one out. Any ball hit on the infield that does not result in an out adds to the total, and any infield double play subtracts from the total (so higher is better). Here’s the simple formula:

IFOP = IFH + IFROE – IFDP

IFH = infield hits
IFROE = times reaching on infield errors or fielder’s choices in which no out is recorded
IFDP = times hitting into double plays on the infield (non-ground ball double plays included)

Most years, an average full-time hitter will have an IFOP of around +5 or +6. Really skillful infield out preventers such as Ichiro can put up totals of +40 or higher. Really slow players will have totals below -5.

There is also a rate stat that measures a hitter’s ability to prevent infield outs. This stat is called Infield Outs per 100 Balls in Play, or simply IFO/C. It is equal to the average number of outs a player will make for every 100 balls he hits on the infield. Since this is a measurement of outs made (and not prevented), higher is worse and lower is better. It is calculated as follows:

IFO/C = 100 – (100 * IFOP / IFBIP)

IFOP = infield outs prevented (defined above)
IFBIP = infield balls in play (total number of balls hit on the infield)

The average player makes around 95 or 96 outs for every 100 balls he hits on the infield, so the average IFO/C is around 95 or 96. An IFO/C of above 100 means that the player has more double plays than combined hits and errors. An elite infield out preventer will have an IFO/C below 85, while an infield out machine will have an IFO/C above 105.

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itcher Fatigue Factor (PFF)

This stat is designed to measure the degree that a hitter makes a pitcher work in order to get an out, relative to the league average. There are two main ways of making a pitcher work harder: 1) seeing  a lot of pitches in each at-bat, and 2) not making outs. Consequently, PFF can be defined as follows:

PFF = (Batter’s Pitches per Out / League’s Pitches per Out) * 100

Pitches per Out is just what it sounds like: Pitches Seen / Outs Made. As with OPP, errors do not count as outs, but sacrifices do, and double-plays count as two outs.

This stat works like other league-adjusted stats (OPS+, ERA+, etc.) in that 100 is league average and the number of points above/below 100 is the percentage above/below average. Thus, a PFF of 110 means that a batter forces pitchers to throw 10% more pitches than average; a PFF of 94 means that pitchers need 6% fewer pitches than average to get that batter out.

As it happens, it takes almost exactly 100 pitches for the average pitcher to get through six innings of work. Thus, you can think of a player’s PFF as the number of pitches it would take for an average pitcher to get through 6 innings’ work when a lineup is entirely made up of a given batter. So, if a batter has a PFF of 106, it would take about 106 pitches to get through 6 innings.