A Dumb Luck Win and Tough Luck Loss Update

Since I updated last the list of Dumb Luck Wins and Tough Luck Losses, Baseball-Reference has recalibrated their WPA to account for this year’s lower run-scoring environment. That means there are many changes to the DLW and TLL standings.

The net effect is that each run given up has a bigger penalty in terms of WPA–since runs are harder to come by, each one is more valuable. This means that it has been a bit harder to earn a high WPA (and a bit easier to “earn” a negative WPA) than we previously assumed. Hence, there have been more DLWs and fewer TLLs than we had thought before. So the lists provided in my earlier “This Week in Junkstats” posts are no longer completely accurate.

Below, I provided an updated lists of all the DLWs and TLLs this season. First up, the Dumb Luck Wins.

2011′s Dumb Luck Wins

DLWs so far in 2011: 41 (out of 767 starter wins, 5.3%)
On pace for: 91 (There were 81 DLWs last year. The record-high is 106.)

Carlos Zambrano and Jorge De La Rosa remain the only two pitchers to earn two DLWs this season, and both had already earned their 2nd DLW by mid-May. The Rockies have had 5 DLWs overall this season, most in MLB; the Cubs have had 4. Nine teams have yet to have a DLW.

The Astros have had 7 DLWs thrown against them–that’s 17% of all the DLWs in baseball this year. Once again, the Cubs come in 2nd, having suffered through 4 DLWs by the opposition.

One of the more impressive feats of the year was the Blue Jays earning back-to-back DLWs on June 7th and 8th against the Royals. Those are Toronto’s only two DLWs of the year. The next-nearest DLWs were the Rockies’ on 5/13 and 5/16.

The award for the worst win of the year so far has to go to John Lackey, who gave up 6 runs in 5 innings (with a -.360 WPA) on April 8th, but still got the win.

Two of these games were not included in previous updates because they did not meet the WPA qualification before the adjustment. They are Derek Holland’s opus on April 22nd and Jason Vargas’ a week later. In addition, the DLWs by De La Rosa (the 2nd one, on 5/13), Jon Lester, Carlos Carrasco, and Cliff Lee also would not have counted before the adjustment. If run-scoring improves in the remainder of the season, necessitating another WPA alteration, these games may no longer be counted as DLWs. Such are the vagaries of relying on in-season WPA.

Next up, let’s look at the updated TLL leaderboard. It’s a bit sparser.

2011′s Tough Luck Losses

TLLs so far in 2011: 22 (out of 755 starter losses, 2.9%)
On pace for: 49 (There were 85 TLLs in 2010.)

There have been about half as many TLLs as DLWs so far this year, after the adjustment. The reason for this is that in this year’s low run-scoring environment, it is quite rare to give up 2 runs, lose the game, and still have a high enough WPA (+0.1) to qualify for a TLL. Only 4 of the 22 TLLs featured a pitcher giving up 2 runs. Since there just aren’t that many games in which a pitcher gives up just 1 run and loses, that limits the TLL totals.

Two-thirds of the way through June, there have already been more TLLs (6) than there were in all of March/April (5). Still, June is unlikely to match the 11 TLLs of May.

More than half the teams in MLB (16) have yet to suffer a TLL. The Yankees, Padres, and Giants have all endured 3 TLLs. The Yankees are the surprise of that group, since they are one of the 3 highest-scoring teams in MLB, and a TLL generally requires a very low-scoring game.

The Twins have won 4 games in which the opposing pitcher earned a TLL, including the 2 most recents TLLs. That’s twice as many as any other team. The Mets performed a nifty feat on May 19th and 20th, saddling the opposing pitcher with a TLL in consecutive games. The games were against different teams, but that is still quite impressive.

Livan Hernandez and A.J. Burnett each have had 2 TLLs this season. I am quite surprised by each of those guys, both of whom seems more like a DLW kind of pitcher. (Burnett does have 1 DLW, but Livan has none.)

The toughest loss of the year, at least by WPA, is James Shields’ start on April 2nd (+.350 WPA). Of course, he gave up 2 earned runs in that game. Another way to look at tough losses is to see which pitchers lost despite not allowing any earned runs at all; Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, and Jason Hammel have all done this. Of those 3, Billingsley easily had the best game (8 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 8 K, and a +.243 WPA). So I’d nominate Billingsley for the toughest loss of the year so far.

Stay tuned throughout the year for more on DLWs, TLLs, and other JunkStats.