JunkStats Year In Review: 2011 In Infield Outs Prevented, Part 1

Continuing our recap of the 2011 season in Junk Stats, this post recaps which teams’ hitters did the best at preventing infield outs–and which teams’ defenses did the best job at creating infield outs.

If you aren’t familiar with Infield Outs Prevented (IFOP), please read this Glossary entry

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Here are the 2011 team IFOP standings for hitters. The top 2 teams instituted youth movements this year, which makes sense; young players tend to be fast. The Cardinals, who set an NL record for double plays hit into, come in last. This marks the 2nd straight year that the World Series champion finished last in IFOP. So that’s the secret! (/sarcasm)

The list is sorted by IFOP (green column), but you can also see Infield Outs per 100 IF Balls In Play (IFO/C) in the right column.

Comparing this list to last year’s

, we see some big changes. The Giants, last year’s lowest team in IFOP, finished 10th this year–an improvement of +80 outs prevented. That’s 3.4 fewer outs per 100 IF BIP. Getting rid of Juan Uribe (-5 IFOP in 2010) helped, as did improved seasons from Pablo Sandoval (-6 to +1)  and Aubrey Huff (0 to +9). They also started to play some youngsters more, after playing almost exclusively veterans in 2010.

Some other big risers compared to last year: the Twins at +73 and the Royals at +65. The biggest boost for Minnesota was adding Ben Revere (+33). Joe Mauer’s injury problems also helped them in this category by keeping him out of the lineup (he was -6 in 2010). For the Royals, Billy Butler improved from last year’s league-worst -15 to “only” -3 this year. New acquisitions Alcides Escobar, Chris Getz, and Melky Cabrera all posted at least +25 IFOPs, too.

The only big drop from 2010 to 2011 was the Tigers, who had a -74 change. They lost Johnny Damon’s +22 and added Victor Martinez’s -6. New regulars Jhonny Peralta (+2) and Alex Avila (-1) didn’t help either. Miguel Cabrera’s IFOP–which was never good–sank to a terrible -11 in 2011, 2nd-worst in MLB.

Next up, let’s see which team’s infielders did the best job at converting outs. This table shows the results of all hitters against each team. So you want your team to have a lower IFOP (which means more outs made) and a higher IFO/C.

This shouldn’t be taken as an assessment of a team’s infield defense, though that definitely plays a large role. If a team’s defense is really bad, they’ll actually let a lot more balls get through the infield, which won’t affect their IFOP against number. A team that gets to a lot of balls could also end up with more infield hits and errors allowed (though it should have more double plays, too).

The Rockies and Reds did the best job of converting balls hit on the infield into outs, while the Cubs were far and away the worst. The Cubs converted 28 fewer infield outs than any other team, and 111 fewer than the Rockies. On a rate basis, per 100 IF BIP, they made 1.5 fewer outs than any other team, and 5 fewer than the Rockies or Reds. I’d be interested to hear any theories as to why this might be.

We can use the numbers in the tables above to form a differential by subtracting the IFOP allowed vs. a team’s pitchers from that team’s hitting IFOP. By this measure, the Astros rate the best; they prevented 146 outs and opponents prevented only 59, for a +87 differential. The Nationals were 2nd with a +68 differential.

Bringing up the rear were the Indians, who prevented 82 fewer outs than their opponents. The Tigers were next-worst at -71.

For all these measures, there’s no correlation between team quality (or offense quality) and IFOP. Making outs on the infield is bad, but it’s only a tiny part of the equation. Many players undoubtedly trade power for slowness, which hurts their IFOP but usually helps their overall production. That’s why great players like Miguel Cabrera can have terrible IFOPs.

In short, that’s what makes IFOP a Junk Stat. But I love it anyway, because it tells you something about a player’s style–how fast they are, and how often they hit balls to the infield–even if if doesn’t tell you anything about that player’s quality.

Coming up later this week: a review of the best and worst players of 2011 in terms of IFOP.