- Dumb Luck Wins
- Tough Luck Losses
- Out Prevention Percentage
- Infield Outs Prevented
This was an excellent week for Dumb Luck Wins, and a so-so week for Tough Luck Losses. Also in this post: the year’s first IFOP (infield outs prevented) leaderboard.
Last week, there were 5 Dumb Luck Wins–a pretty high total. This week topped it in spectacular fashion, however. Starters accrued 8 Dumb Luck Wins in the season’s second week, which is about twice what I’d expect in a normal week. It’s very early, but 2011 is well ahead of the pace to have the most DLWs of all time.
This Week in Dumb Luck Wins
# of DLWs this week: 8
DLW% this week: 12.1% (8 out of 66 starter wins)
DLWs so far in 2011: 13 (out of 136 starter wins, 9.6%)
On pace for: 161 (The most DLWs in a year is 117, in 2006.)
Here are all of this week’s DLWs:
|6||Javier Vazquez||2011-04-09||FLA||HOU||W 7-5||6.0||8||4||4||2||4||0||0||1||-0.134|
|7||Chris Capuano||2011-04-09||NYM||WSN||W 8-4||6.0||7||4||4||1||8||2||1||0||-0.160|
|8||Jhoulys Chacin||2011-04-10||COL||PIT||W 6-5||6.0||7||5||4||2||3||0||1||1||-0.258|
|9||Ryan Dempster||2011-04-11||CHC||HOU||W 5-4||6.1||6||4||4||3||9||2||0||0||-0.059|
|10||Armando Galarraga||2011-04-12||ARI||STL||W 13-8||5.0||9||5||5||2||3||3||0||0||-0.121|
|11||Kyle Davies||2011-04-13||KCR||MIN||W 10-5||5.0||10||5||5||1||4||0||0||0||-0.192|
|12||Carlos Zambrano||2011-04-13||CHC||HOU||W 9-5||5.2||7||5||5||3||4||1||0||0||-0.173|
|13||Jorge de la Rosa||2011-04-14||COL||NYM||W 9-4||6.2||5||4||4||4||7||0||0||0||-0.179|
Amazingly, Carlos Zambrano already has 2 DLWs in 3 starts, which explains how he can be 2-0 despite a 6.11 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. Also impressive is that 3 different Rockies starters have DLWs already (Chacin, de la Rosa, and Jason Hammel). That Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire to start the year, but if the pitching doesn’t improve, they’ll have a hard time sustaining their hot start.
This Week in Tough Luck Losses
# of TLLs this week: 3
TLL% this week: 4.8% (3 out of 63 starter losses)
TLLs so far in 2011: 6 (out of 131 starter losses, 4.6%)
On pace for: 74 (There were 85 TLLs in 2010.)
Here are all of this week’s TLLs:
|4||Daniel Hudson||2011-04-09||ARI||CIN||L 1-6||7.0||3||2||2||3||8||0||0||0||0.127|
|5||Justin Verlander||2011-04-11||DET||TEX||L 0-2||9.0||6||2||2||1||4||0||0||1||0.163|
|6||Fausto Carmona||2011-04-12||CLE||LAA||L 0-2||7.2||4||2||2||3||6||2||0||0||0.123|
Hudson’s TLL is easily the most unlikely of the year, given that the Diamondbacks and Reds are two of the best offenses in the league, and a TLL means not many runs were scored (though the Reds did add 4 runs off the D-backs bullpen in that game).
This Week in Another Junk Stat: IFOP
Each week, I’ll update you on one of the other Junk Stats. This week, it’s IFOP (Infield Outs Prevented). Here are the top 14 in IFOP so far. I’ve also listed their IFO/C (Infield Outs per 100 IF Balls in Play); this stat measures outs made rather than outs prevented, so lower is better.
For reference, the league average IFOP per 50 PA is about +1 and the league average IFO/C is 95.8. To qualify for this list, a player needed 40 PA and 12 infield balls in play.
There aren’t too many surprises here. It’s amazing how sorted-out this list seems despite it being very early in the season. Ichiro is on top (where he often is), and other noted speedsters/infield hit artists are on the list as well: Reyes, Pierre, Jeter, Weeks, Bourn, etc. The one surprise is a big one, though: Brian McCann. That he has 5 infield hits and only 1 double play so far isn’t just surprising, it’s shocking. In fact, he leads MLB in IFO/C right now! That can’t keep up. (Can it?)
And here are the bottom 8:
Another week, another list with Albert Pujols at the bottom. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed at the bottom of this list all year, either. He’s always hit into a lot of DPs, and he’s only getting older. Don’t panic, though, Cards fans: IFOP is not in any way a measure of how good a player is, so finishing with a poor IFOP is hardly damning. Another great player makes the list: Tulowitzki. He hits into a lot of DPs, too, but he’ll also start getting some infield hits, too; I doubt he ends the year in the bottom 20.
As a Braves fan, the most worrisome name on this list is Nate McLouth’s. He’s supposed to be setting the table for Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Dan Uggla, and Jason Heyward. So far this year, though, he has 4 double plays and no infield hits, which is not encouraging at all. No wonder the Braves’ offense has been sluggish.
Tagged with: Albert Pujols Brian McCann Carlos Zambrano dumb luck wins ifop tough luck losses Troy Tulowitzki week in JunkStats
This blog is devoted to the invention and use of unusual baseball statistics. These Junk Stats are designed to reveal the not-so-meaningful quirks that make baseball so fascinating.
JunkStats is written by Jacob Peterson, who also writes for the Braves blog Talking ChopBeyond the Boxscore
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