Drew Smyly And Great Streaks To Start A Career

Drew Smyly

of the Tigers has made 6 MLB starts, all of them this season. He’s given up 1 run in 5 of them and 2 runs in the other. That run of success is quite rare for a player debuting in the majors.

Smyly’s streak of 6 straight starts to begin a career without allowing more than 2 runs isn’t the record, but it’s also not far from it. Here are all the players in MLB history (since 1918) to match or exceed Smyly’s streak:

Obviously, because Smyly’s innings total is relatively low for a streak like this (he hasn’t gone more than 6 innings in any start), his streak is a bit less impressive than most of the others. But it’s still damn impressive. And he’s only 2 more good games away from tying the record, which is held by quite a strange assortment of pitchers.

The most recent pitcher to debut with 8 starts of 2 runs or less was Carlos Hernandez

in 2001-2. If you don’t remember this streak, it’s probably because it was spread out over 2 seasons and was interrupted by a couple relief appearances (which don’t affect the table above). In fact, Hernandez gave up 3 runs in his 1st career relief appearance, but didn’t give up 3+ runs until his 9th start. That’s just weird. He hurt his arm before the 2003 season and only made 9 more MLB starts after that.

The next 2 most recent pitchers at the top of the list are a couple of Dodgers imports from foreign countries, each of whom made quite a splash in MLB before settling down into a less-spectacular (but still really good) career with the Dodgers. Both Chan Ho Park

and Fernando Valenzuela also saw their careers drop off significantly after leaving the pitcher-friendly confines of Chavez Ravine. Gary Peters also fit in this mold, having several very good years after his great debut before falling off.

Three of the pitchers at the top of the list–Cisco Carlos

, Fred Klages , and Jerry Walker –didn’t have much success at all after their great debuts. In fact, Klages made just 4 more starts after that run. Carlos made just 28 more, while Walker lasted 82 more, most of them mediocre. Dave Ferriss was somewhere in between these two groups. He didn’t last long (95 more starts), but he did make an All-Star Team in his 2nd season, in which he had a 3.25 ERA (112 ERA+) in 274 innings.

Aside from Valenzuela, only a few of the pitchers on the list went on to have much long-term success after their initial streaks. Interestingly, though, most of them are still pitching: Jered Weaver

, Matt Cain , & Josh Johnson included.

Probably the best pitcher on the list is Steve Rogers

, the former Expos ace. He had a career brWAR of 42.2, which is well shy of Hall of Fame standards but still really damn good. After that comes Valenzuela (34.2 brWAR), Cain (27.0), Weaver (26.0), Earl Hamilton (21.6), and Johnson (20.8). There’s a really good chance that Cain or Weaver ends up with the best career of anyone on this list.

What does this tell us about Smyly’s future? Not much. Certainly, he’s had an impressive start, and some of the others on this list are excellent pitchers… but there are also a lot of duds on there. And it’s doubtful that this kind of list has any long-term value anyway. As with any stat that covers only a small number of starts, there are going to be a lot of flukes. Only time will tell if Smyly is one of them, or a more valuable pitcher like Valenzuela, Cain, or Weaver.